Anatomy of a conspiracy theorist’s post
Earlier, I wrote about Conspiracy theorists and the Downraters. Today we’re going to look at a conspiracy theorist and demonstrate that his claims are manufactured, and could not have happened as he alleged it happened.
[EDIT] Links to GMC topic and YoYogames page intentionally removed, see comment for explanation.
The topic started out as a rant about how the game has been on the top page and then because of a downrater dropped into oblivion. The thing is, it absolutely could not have happened like he said it happened. It’s not feasible mathematically, it’s not feasible time wise, and it’s not feasible that a game that has gotten absolutely zero attention, suddenly got huge negative attention, and then all of a sudden get so much positive attention.
It just doesn’t work.
But I just watched it get continually downrated from a 4.0 to a 3.7 (about 20+ votes) within a matter of seconds
The topic states that he just happened to be on YoYoGames and just happened to witness a downrater downrate his game in a matter of seconds. He said it happened 20+ times, later in the topic claimed 25 to 30 times.
Lets deal with the time first claim first. For a downrater to login to YYGs, go to his game page, rate it one star, sign out, then login in as a second user. That process takes at best 45 seconds per login, but closer to a minute.
To do so 20 times or even up to 30 would take at best 20 minutes and probably closer to a half hour. That’s also assuming that the evil downrater had 20 to 30 accounts with unique user names at his disposal. If he didn’t, the process would take considerably longer as he would have to have had an equal number of unique emails and verify them.
But anyway it absolutely could not have happened as the poster described. We know he’s lying.
Then he made some claims about what the value of the game fell to.
He claimed it was at 4.0 and fell to 3.7 with 107 plays.
So let’s do some math:
107 * 4 = 428 (base rating)
(428 + (20 *1)) / (107 + 20) = 3.5 (lower bound of 20 down raters)
(428 + (30 *1)) / (107 + 30) = 3.3 (upper bound of 30 down raters)
So assuming somewhere between 20 and 30 downrates, his rating would have dropped to a value between 3.3 and 3.5. He claimed it dropped to 3.7.
Once again mathematically, it is impossible for it to happen as he claimed it did. He has now lied twice.
Now lets talk about the unlikelihood of this happening. Here we have a game that has presence on the YYGs, the GMC, 64 digits, and GMG. It was released in April, but only had 107 ratings. Although it has a topic on GMG it is hosted on 64 digits, since April this game has only been downloaded by members of both sites a total of 59 times. It hasn’t been rated on either of those sites enough times to make it’s stats appear. It’s topic on the GMC is fairly empty except for the conspiracy theorist, who constantly replies to every post. Let’s face it the game has done nothing but flounder. It is unremarkable.
Yet somehow this unremarkable game was targeted by the downrater, at exactly the same moment that it’s creator happened to be on (and constantly refreshing). Who happened to witness the start and finish of the downrating event. This is also unbelievable.
Now let’s talk about the bounce-back. The game is now back to a rating of 4.0 with 161 ratings.
Lets do some more math:
161 * 4.0 = 644
Assuming 20 downraters:
127 * 3.5 = 444
644 -444 = 200 (score achieved since downrating)
161 - 127 = 34 (ratings since downrating)
200 / 34 = 5.88
This means that since the downrating occurred, the game would have have been rated an average of 5.88, since the downrating. That’s 30 six ratings and 4 five ratings. A near impossibility.
Assuming 30 downraters:
137 * 3.3 = 452
644 - 452 = 192 (score achieved since downrating)
161 - 137 = 24 (ratings since downrating)
192 / 24 = 8
So assuming an upper-bound of 30, he has achieved and average rating of 8 stars from 24 raters, not bad considering the highest ranking is 6. By the way, I am aware that there is loss of precision in the calculation, but the precision loss isn’t enough to make the impossible possible.
So not only have we proven, that the downrating could not have happened mathematically, we have also proven that his score could not have achieved it’s current rating, had the downrating occurred.
We have proven beyond all reasonable doubt that a significant downrating did not occur.
But we are not done yet. Although there was no downrating, there still was a remarkable and sudden rise. An uprating. This is the only thing of note in this whole affair.
We have a game creator, who might honestly believe he is the victim of an evil downrating. And honestly believes he was cheated, and honestly believes he deserves to be on the front page. Drop from the front page and then remarkably and steadily skyrocket back to the front page.
As I write this, it is the 8th most popular game on all of YoYoGames. Three of those games are brand new, discounting them, this game is the 5th most popular game of the 22,290 games currently published.
The very fact that this game made it to the top page is suspect in itself. The game is ignored in it’s own topic, ignored by 64 digits, ignored by GMG. Yet it somehow managed to rise to the top page, not just once, but twice.
Something stinks, and it’s not downrating.
The game isn’t bad, but it really is not much more than average. It certainly isn’t the same caliber as any of 2DCube’s games, Seiklus, Hover Tank, Coaster Rider, Crimelife 2, Caveman Craig and hundreds more. All games that have lower ratings.
I’ll bet if YYGs looked at the ratings, they would find a lot of action from a single IP address, but there wouldn’t be downrating attached to them. There would be a bunch of 6 star ratings.
Yes, there are downraters. It’s not the epidemic people want it to be. But there are some. In order for a downrater to benefit from their downrating, they must also have a game on YYGs.
So I ask you. If someone is willing to downrate, and create multiple accounts to do so, would it also be likely to uprate from multiple accounts as well?
Instead of listening to the ramblings of ego shattered game makers, look at the evidence. I’ve demonstrated that significant downrating could not have occured. I’ve shown more evidence that uprating is likely. I’ve shown more evidence than any downrating topic present to date.
Now apply Occam’s Razor.
September 16th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Hehe. One word explains it all. Hyperbole.
In reality I enjoyed that game very much.
September 16th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Yeah it was just given a staff pick today. I haven’t tried it out, but it must be good…
September 16th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Hmm, you seem to have taken a special interest into this specific poster/game. I say this, because I saw the topic that you are referring to. And while I can’t say I don’t suspect uprating, I have seen the poster’s claim happen before.
I won’t name any games, but I have seen some specific games get downrated from the front page down to about 3.5s or so. Although I have never witnessed it in “a matter of seconds”. But I have seen many games drop significantly in rating in a short period of time, that look very suspicious.
Also, I have to say you aren’t right on a few issues. Making multiple accounts can take only a few seconds apiece if you use “disposable emails” such as mailinator (ironically that’s what I used for my email right now).
And finally, I feel you have made the judgment that the game is “unremarkable” based solely on opinion. Which is ironic, because this particular game has become a staff’s pick, and to the looks of it has been “downrated” again.
So when it comes down to it, I do believe that many claims of downrating are exaggerated. And often downrating is countered by uprating, which is understandable even if it is a little pathetic. But I have to say I have witnessed things very much like what the poster claimed happened.
September 16th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
I have removed the links to the GMC topic and YYGs game page.
I received a PM from the conspiracy theorist, asking me to do so. The PM was neither polite, nor impolite. It was a request, but acknowledged that I was under no obligation to do so.
I have decided to honour his request.
Since writing this blog entry, the game has dropped from 4.1 to 3.7. I am unsure if this entry had any influence on the downturn. I would hope that the only influence that I had was to encourage people to rate it honestly.
I also don’t want the creator to blame all negative ratings on me.
For those that are aware of the game and GMC member, I encourage you to play it, rate it, using the same standards that you have rated all games. Do not rate it a one because you agree with me, and don’t give it a 6 because you disagree with me.
I have encouraged the creator to respond to my points, but like his request to me, acknowledge he is under no obligation to do so.
September 16th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
Alright, well there are some main reasons you think it couldn’t have happened. Mathematically, time wise, and because it had “zero attention” and then gets a spike of attention.
First of all, you failed to take into account the fact that YYG uses rounded numbers. How do you think they sort out the 40+ pages of games with same ratings? They round up, but the ratings themselves aren’t rounded, only what is displayed. So therefore, it’s entirely possible (and feasible) that it was at a “low” 4.0 and was downrated to a “high” 3.7. It’s even very possible that it happened the other way around, which would likely fix the reason why you got 3.3-3.5 as your range. So instead of 107*4, it would be 107*4.04 or something along those lines (although again, it was 108 not 107). I have not checked the math on this, but this is factual information about how the system works. I’m sure you will run up some equation that “disproves” my statements, but I have to say there’s only so much you can know. As I suggested in the topic, it is even very possible that the downrater decided “hey I’ll rate it 2/6 every now and again so I don’t get caught”, I have no way of proving how or what it was rated each time.
Second, time wise. I stand by my post that after a few minutes it had been downrated 20+ times. It is entirely possible that a person could have 20+ accounts if they have a history of doing this to games. Not to mention as turple pointed out, disposable emails can make it a whole lot quicker. And 20 minutes is a ridiculous time frame, it takes no more than 10-20 seconds to log out and back in if you have multiple accounts ready with simple/similar names.
Thirdly, the whole “zero attention” bit. I don’t see how a game with 108 ratings (yes 108, not 107) has zero attention. It had been on the front page for about a week or so, because it was constantly being rated well enough to stay up there.
Next we have motive. I am not saying somebody decided “hey this game stinks, I’m going to downrate it”, but it could be the simple fact that somebody thinks it deserves to be lower, or that they are mad that I had been on the front page for X amount of days.
And finally, the fact that I was online when it happened. I check YYG often, especially since I was waiting for news about the official start of the new competition. And that is pure chance if you ask me, so I really don’t want to hear how unlikely or impossible something as simple as being online is.
So yes, I still defend the point that not only is it possible, but it did happen.
My main problem with this whole blog post is how you don’t just stick with a factual and unbiased opinion. Instead, you make sure to point out how my game topic has “very little posts other than my replies” or whatever you said, for no real reason other than to make me look bad.
Next, you make sure to point out that the game is “unremarkable” which is purely opinion. And if you took time to read the comments (I’m sure you would notice “how often I comment on YYG too”, sorry if I don’t leave questions unanswered) you would notice that most people had nothing but good things to say. I’m not trying to push that my game should be on the front page, I am fine that is 100+ pages back now (it’s currently 3.7, and I don’t blame you or this blog at all as you hoped I wouldn’t). I hate to bring it up, but I as others have already posted it is now a staff’s pick, which is a perfect example of difference in opinions.
Not only do you insult me by telling me my game is bad and that all of my topic replies are mine (or most of them at least), but then you go as far as to flat out say that I uprated my game. That’s an insult to my honesty and integrity. And to me, is a major assumption. There are plenty of people who could have “uprated” it if any uprating even occurred, which I have to say I wouldn’t be the one to know. Just as some person may think my game doesn’t deserve a rank, someone may think it does deserve a rank, who’s to say who did what.
I hope this at least clears up the fact that it could have happened. Because I honestly don’t care who believes me. But I am surprised that you went as far as to insult me (yes, I’m insulted by some of the things you posted) over something as trivial as this.
What happened happened. I understand many times people exaggerate, heck I even exaggerated once or twice (i.e. a few seconds when it really happened over about 5 minutes). But you have to consider the source. I have no past actions that regard me as a noob or somebody who would embellish the truth the way you have accused me of. I have nothing to gain from this. I’ve always tried my best to make all of my posts well thought out and intelligent.
I will agree that my topic was an overreaction. But I will stand by the FACT that what I said happened, did happen.
The fact that I took the time to post something as in depth as this in a blog with only a few responses is not something I would do if I was lying, I would just let it die. But I’m sure you’ll just turn this around as well.
I have nothing against you, or your thoughts. But I do have a problem with the way you conducted yourself in the blog, and I have to say I feel insulted for doing absolutely nothing.
Oh, and as I said in the PM, thanks for removing the links. And I don’t mean to sound like a jerk, but I’m just trying to hopefully clear this up once and for all so we can all just move on.
And on an absolute final note, I watched it happen. So to say it didn’t happen is saying one thing, that I am lying. I don’t really see what’s to discuss. It’s so futile, neither of us will ever be able to conclusively prove (try as you might) that it did or did not happen. So hopefully this will stop this whole discussion, at least on what happened in my situation.
September 16th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Is the rating system a pure mathematical function or does it apply weight based on number of games rated, community involvement or other variables?
If it is using a weighted system then the math he talks about is possible.
Does anyone have any literature of the rating system?
September 17th, 2008 at 7:01 am
“Does anyone have any literature of the rating system?”
– Dan
My friend’s brother told me he knows a guy whose Dad is like real smart and stuff. And his Dad like cracked the code of how the rating system works. But YoYo found out about it and said they would like sue him if he told anybody.
Seems pretty true to me… but I dunno.
Another guy told me the rating system code is kept in a big vault in Mark’s cellar and only one other person has the key. I also heard one of the YYG mods found out about the code and hid it on the YYG site in PLAIN view!
If you take like every 7th letter from every 3rd word (on a certain YYG page) you get a link to another site where the rating code is revealed. Or maybe it’s like every 5th letter from every 11th word. Not sure… but I heard it’s something like that.
Anyway… YYG found out and they took down that other site. Damn them.
September 17th, 2008 at 9:38 am
I can’t believe that KC.
This is just another example of YYG’s hiding things from the gmc.